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19 May 1998
The longer term prospects for the agriculture and forestry industries look set to improve according to production and price projections released today in MAF’s "Situation and Outlook for New Zealand Agriculture and Forestry" (SONZAF) document.
World dairy prices are set to improve, while the milking herd will continue to slowly expand. The outlook for meat prices is favourable, and beef volumes are expected to rise. MAF projects wool production will fall slightly over the period to 2002 because of lower sheep numbers.
Prices are projected to rise, following a slight auction price reduction in the 1997/98 season.
Favourable growing conditions will result in a rise in Kiwifruit production. World prices will be steady to the year ending 1999, but New Zealand prices are likely to fall owing to the larger crop.
New Zealand’s apple export crop is expected to increase by about 6% to 17 million cartons in the year ending September 1998 despite higher grading standard requirements and the effects of the drought. Export returns to growers are expected to increase by about 31% to around $13.35 per carton in 1997/98, reflecting lower European Union and United States production and stock levels and improved prices.
Mixed fortunes are expected for the deer industry. Prices are expected to fall from last seasons high prices, but production will continue to rise. Velvet prices have been seriously affected as a result of the Asian crisis.
Log and lumber prices have been badly affected by the Asian financial crises, with price and volume reductions in the first half of 1998. A slight lift in the log export prices and volumes is expected from the year ending March 2000 onwards, driven by strengthening demand as Asian economies recover. Lumber exports are expected to recover slowly from 1999 to 2001, reflecting a slow Japanese recovery.
This year’s SONZAF, the first to include Forestry, will be the last published by MAF. It includes detailed production and price projections for New Zealand’s major agriculture and forestry industries which include dairy, beef, lamb, wool, venison, velvet, kiwifruit, apples, logs, lumber, wood pulp, newsprint, paper and paperboard.
For further information contact:
Ronnie Horesh, SONZAF Editor, Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, Tel: (04) 4744 100 Ext: 8499