The Greenshell mussel (GSM) is a commercially, ecologically and culturally significant species to New Zealand. Summer die-offs, spat retention issues and a severe decline in GSM spat settlement have been reported in the Marlborough Sounds. The causes of these effects are unknown but preliminary evidence indicates that pressure from anthropogenic activities could contribute. The aims of this study were to

(1) test the toxicity of water and sediment extracts on early life stages of the GSM to identify potential sources of stressors affecting GSM recruitment, and

(2) investigate the effects of temperature on the toxicity of these stressors to help understand the potential impact of climate change and pollution on GSM.

This report has two main objectives.

1) To present a new approach to documenting and predicting people’s willingness to manage invasive species and designing
appropriate public engagement strategies.

2) To present new simulation tools for modelling.

This Sustainable Land Management and Climate Change (SLMACC) project “Quantifying climate change adaptation plans” uses kiwifruit and avocado as exemplars of high-value crops. It aims to predict the performance of horticultural crops under climate change, to quantify growers’ exposure to climate change, and to model how this exposure is affected by adaptations designed to ameliorate climate impacts.

The impact of floods on the primary sector was first assessed nationally and then for the Awanui River Catchment in Northland. The analyses focused on the impacts of flooding on the primary sector, including changes in land uses as an adaption response to floods with climate change and subsequent changes in economic and environmental indicators. The specific objectives of the analysis are to:

1 quantify New Zealand’s primary sector exposure to flood hazards.

2 quantify the primary sector’s exposure and financial losses from floods in one catchment – the Awanui catchment.

3 analyse the impacts of flooding on land-use change and economic and environmental indicators.

4 evaluate economic and social welfare changes from floods-induced land-use change.

This study explores the impact of climate change on biological control of the Woolly apple aphid (Eriosoma lanigerum, WAA) by its parasitoid Aphelinus mali. Changes in temperature affect the survival and development of A. mali, potentially influencing its effectiveness in controlling WAA populations. The study shows that temperature variations impact the survival and development of A. mali. While warmer conditions enhance parasitism rates, factors like extreme heat events and host population changes may counteract the positive effects. Highlighting the complex dynamics of climate change on insect pest control and emphasizing the need for a nuanced understanding of how climate change affects pest management strategies.

This report details an exploration of the decision context for land use change as an adaptation to climate change in the primary industries. This project focuses on the dynamic interactions between values, rules, and knowledge used by decision makers. The aim is to support adaptation planning in the primary industries, by contributing to the evidence base, and enhance capability and capacity for responding to the risks and opportunities due to climate change.

Researchers took data from a long-term experiment on elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) impacts on grassland and applied them to a real farm. They used an ecosystem model and a farm system optimisation model to compare the current farm with the farm in the future under elevated CO2. The future farm made more profit but required more P fertiliser, greater management input and had higher farm total greenhouse gas emissions. The next stage should be to run the farm with climate as well as CO2 changes.

Keywords: FACE, climate change, impacts, elevated carbon dioxide, APSIM, AgInform

This report addresses using scenarios to identify climate risks for the primary sector, different modelling methods to quantitatively estimate risk impacts and the costs/benefits of adaptation options,.and reviews indicator frameworks used by the US, UK and EU. The report recommends that risk assessment should include a range of risk drivers, including physical and socio-economic and that an indicator programme is needed.

Keywords: Climate change, adaptation, risk assessment, risk identification, scenarios, primary sector, indicators

This report addresses climate-change impacts on kiwifruit and apple, avocado, blueberry, cherry and wine grape. In the future obtaining adequate winter chill will become more challenging in many areas where these crops are currently grown, and this will be critical if the future climates resemble those of RCP 8.5 than RCP 2.6. At the same time, climate change could improve the suitability many locations for other growing criteria.

This research evaluated using the Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) methodology to assess climate change risk in forestry businesses. The key benefit of the TCFD approach is that it exposes business strategy, governance and operations to risk analysis and management and focuses on understanding any financial risks. This research is the first step on what the TCFD suggests is a five-year process. This analysis can start to define the climate change risk analysis.

Keywords: Forestry, climate change, risk assessment, business risk,

Applied adaptation pathways provide a useful framework for strategic planning for primary industries. This report describes the ways in which climate change will affect primary industries in Hawke’s Bay. The regional pathway method provides insight into how decision taken in one domain/sector can have an impact on others, and how the region can prioritise action.

This project aimed to evaluate potential agricultural land uses that could provide an alternative to livestock production. In all scenarios, changing the land use to the selected crops increased the profitability. Converting nearly 200,000 ha of pastoral land to crops and mānuka plantations will have a relatively small effect on CH4 emissions. Adoption and development of mitigation technologies is more likely to have a large effect towards meeting future CH4 emission reduction targets.