MPI report predicts strong growth in primary exports in 2018

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New Zealand's primary industry exports are forecast to rise 9.3% over the next year on the back of strong dairy prices and a return to normal productivity levels, according to MPI's latest quarterly update to its Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries.

"Exports reached $38.1 billion in the year ended June 2017, an increase of 2.4% over the previous year, and $7 million higher than we previously estimated," says Jarred Mair, Director of Sector Policy for the Ministry for Primary Industries (MPI).

"Dairy prices began recovering in the past year, which boosted exports, despite weather reducing production. The forestry sector also made a strong contribution to export growth for the second consecutive year, driven by record demand for log exports to China. This offset a decline in meat and wool exports.

"A number of factors will coincide to substantially boost exports next year to $41.6 billion, including dairy prices remaining strong, supported by a return to normal productivity levels across most sectors following adverse weather last year.

"These trends are projected to continue into 2019, resulting in a forecast of $42.4 billion in the year ended June 2019 (up 1.8%). This is despite a New Zealand dollar that has strengthened over the past quarter and that is now forecast at higher levels over the outlook period."

The SOPI provides a snapshot and forecast for our major primary sectors over the next 4 years.

Download the full report [PDF, 2.7 MB]

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