Situation and outlook for primary industries

Get the latest update on the performance of our main primary sectors and our forecast for the future. 

About SOPI

The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) report quarterlySOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.

Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.

SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.

Update from the latest SOPI – December 2018

New Zealand's primary industry exports are forecast to increase by 3.8% in the year ending June 2019 to $44.3 billion. This forecast has increased $505 million from the September forecast round and has been boosted by better prices in New Zealand dollars and a good production season so far. 

In 2019, we expect horticulture to be the fastest-growing sector. Improved growing conditions (compared to 2018) for the last harvest led to higher yields for kiwifruit and most other horticultural products. Dairy export revenue is forecast to increase 3.3% from last year to just over $17 billion in the year to June 2019, building on gains in the previous 2 years.

Download the December 2018 SOPI report [PDF, 3.5 MB]

Download SOPI data [XLSX, 63 KB]

What's happening in our sectors

Dairy

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • dairy exports to rise 3.3% to $17.2 billion
  • 3% growth in milk production on farm
  • higher value products like cheese and infant formula to drive growth in export revenue.

 

Meat and wool

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • meat and wool export revenue to increase by 0.8% to $9.6 billion (after a large 14.2% gain in 2018)
  • beef and veal prices to increase more than previously expected
  • products such as edible offal, processed meat and pet food to continue to grow.

 

Forestry

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • forestry exports to now increase by 4.4% to $6.7 billion due to stronger harvest volumes
  • lower log inventories in China and increasing demand from other countries to increase export volumes despite steady prices.

 

Horticulture

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • horticulture exports to only rise 12% to $6.0 billion
  • kiwifruit export revenue to rise 21%, because of a very good kiwifruit harvest in March/April 2018 (after a poor harvest in 2017) and rising kiwifruit prices
  • wine revenue to rise 3.3% due to continuing strong demand from North America
  • apple and pear exports to be at record levels.

 

 

Seafood

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • seafood exports to increase 6.3% to $1.9 billion
  • demand from key markets to continue to rise, supporting increasing prices
  • growth in aquaculture production to allow more exports to important markets.

 

Arable

In the year to June 2019 we forecast:

  • exports for the year ending June 2019 to fall 5.2% to $230 million (after stronger exports earlier in 2018 from an earlier harvest)
  • a positive long-term outlook for arable exports, with moderate price and volume growth.

 

 

Other primary sector exports

In the year to June 2019, we forecast:

  • export revenue to fall to $2.7 billion, down 1.0% from 2018
  • increases in beverages and other products and honey to offset decreases in sugar, confectionery, live animals, and innovative processed food exports.

 


All SOPI reports

Last reviewed:
Has this been useful? Give us your feedback