Situation and outlook for primary industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
The September 2019 SOPI report [PDF, 1.3 MB]
Summary of the September 2019 SOPI report
New Zealand's primary sector exports have continued to grow, despite an increasingly uncertain global trade environment. Export revenue reached $46.4 billion for the year to June 2019, up 8.7% from the previous year. This is the second year of substantial export growth, with significant gains across most primary industry sectors.
In 2020, we expect export revenue to drop 0.5% to $46.2 billion. While prices are expected to remain high for most products, lower export volumes are expected in most sectors. Dairy and red meat export volumes are expected to drop after benefitting from above-average pasture growth last season. Lower log prices are expected to drive a decrease in log exports.
- Dairy exports reached $18.1 billion for the year to June 2019, led by a 2.4% growth in milk production.
- For the year to June 2020, we forecast dairy exports to rise 2.8% to $18.6 billion, with rising prices offsetting a slight decline in milk production.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool export revenue for the year to June 2019 increased by 6.6% to $10.2 billion due to high red meat prices.
- Slightly lower production in 2020 is expected to push meat and wool export revenue down 1.0% to $10.1 billion.
- Forestry exports in the year to June 2019 will increase by 8.6% to $6.9 billion due to stronger harvest volumes and record prices.
- Exports for the year to June 2020 are expected to drop 16.2% to $5.8 billion due to sharply lower log prices in China.
- Horticulture exports increased 13.7% to $6.1 billion in the year to June 2019 due to good harvests for kiwifruit, wine grapes, and apples and pears.
- Harvest volumes for 2020 are expected to be slightly lower than 2019, but prices are expected to continue rising. As a result, export revenue is forecast to increase 3.8% in 2020 to $6.3 billion.
- Seafood exports rose 10.4% to $2.0 billion in the year to June 2019 due to rising prices.
- In 2020, export revenue is forecast to rise, but at a slower rate of 5.5%, with strong prices and aquaculture expansion expected to offset the voluntary reduction in hoki catch. Prices are expected to continue rising.
- Exports for the year ending June 2019 fell 2.7% to $236 million due to lower harvest volumes.
- Production and exports are expected to slowly recover in the year ending June 2020, pushing export revenue up 1.5% to $240 million.
Other primary sector exports
- Export revenue to increase to $2.9 billion in the year ending June 2019, up 5.4%, led by products such as beer and soft drinks.
- Exports of other primary sector products are expected to increase another 5.2% to $3.0 billion in 2020.
Find out more
Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz