Situation and outlook for primary industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – June 2019
New Zealand’s primary sector exports have continued to grow, despite an increasingly uncertain global trade environment. Export revenue is now forecast to reach $45.7 billion for the year to June 2019, up 7.1 percent from the previous year. This is the second year of substantial export growth, with significant gains across most primary industry sectors.
In 2019, we expect horticulture to be the fastest-growing sector. Improved growing conditions compared to 2018 led to higher yields for kiwifruit and most other horticultural products. In addition, dairy export revenue is forecast to increase 5.7 percent to $17.6 billion in the year to June 2019, building on gains from the previous 2 years.
Download the June 2019 SOPI report [PDF, 7.7 MB]
Download SOPI data [XLSX, 65 KB]
What's happening in our sectors
- Dairy exports to rise 5.7% to $17.6 billion in the year to June 2019, led by a 2.3% growth in milk production.
- For the year to June 2020, we forecast dairy exports to rise 1.2% to $17.8 billion, with rising prices offsetting a slight decline in milk production.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool export revenue to increase by 6.4 percent to $10.2 billion due to high red meat prices in the year to June 2019.
- Red meat prices have stayed high for the last 2 years. Lamb and mutton prices are forecast to fall in 2020, pushing overall meat and wool export revenue down 2.5% to $9.9 billion.
- Forestry exports in the year to June 2019 will increase by 7.8% to $6.9 billion due to stronger harvest volumes and record prices.
- Most of this growth is due to strong demand from China for our logs. This is expected to continue, with export revenue forecast to remain stable in 2020.
- Horticulture exports are set to increase 13.5% to $6.1 billion in the year to June 2019 due to good harvests for kiwifruit, wine grapes, and apples and pears.
- Harvest volumes for next year are expected to be slightly lower than last year, but prices are expected to continue rising. As a result, export revenue is forecast to increase 0.3% in 2020.
- Seafood exports to rise 7.3% to $1.9 billion in the year to June 2019 due to rising prices.
- In 2020, export revenue is forecast to decline 2.6%, largely due to a voluntary reduction in hoki catch limits, while prices are expected to continue rising.
- Exports for the year ending June 2019 to fall 4% to $235 million due to lower harvest volumes.
- Production and exports are expected to recover in the year ending June 2020, pushing export revenue up 6.4% to $250 million.
Other primary sector exports
- Export revenue to increase to $2.8 billion in the year ending June 2019, up 3.5%, led by products such as beer and soft drinks.
- Exports of other primary sector products is expected to increase another 2.5% to $2.9 billion in 2020.
All SOPI reports
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