Situation and outlook for primary industries

Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.

About SOPI

Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.

Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.

SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.

The December 2019 SOPI report [PDF, 3.9 MB]

Summary of the December 2019 SOPI report

In 2020, we expect export revenue to increase by 3.3% to $47.9 billion.  Our expectations have increased from our September forecast round, with upward revisions to dairy, meat, wool and forestry.  Most of this increase is due to rising global commodity prices and a weaker New Zealand dollar.  For 2021, we expect a further 2.1% increase in export revenue to $48.9 billion as we expect global commodity prices to remain high. 

December 2019 highlights for each sector

Dairy

  • For the year to June 2020, we expect dairy exports to rise 8.4% to $19.6 billion, with rising prices offsetting a slight decline in milk production.
  • Exports are expected to decrease by 0.9% for 2020 to $19.5 million.

 

Meat and wool

  • Meat and wool export revenue is expected to increase by 2.5% to reach $10.4 billion for the year to June 2020. This increase is due to high international meat prices as a result of African swine fever reducing China’s pork herd. 
  • Exports are expected to increase a further 2.4% to $10.7 million in 2021.

 

Forestry

  • Exports for the year to June 2020 are expected to drop 16.2% to $5.8 billion due to sharply lower log prices in China. This is $0.2 billion higher than the September forecast as log prices are recovering more quickly than expected. 
  • Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to recover 10% to $6.6 billion.

 

Horticulture

  • Horticulture export revenue is expected to rise by 4.7% to $6.4 billion for the year to June 2020, led by increases in kiwifruit, wine, and apples and pears. 
  • Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to increase a further 2% to $6.5 billion. 

 

 

Seafood

  • Seafood exports for the year to June 2020 are expected to increase 6.5% to $2.1 billion due to increasing prices and higher aquaculture production.
  • Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to rise a further 5.7% to $2.2 billion. 

 

Arable

  • Production and exports are expected to recover strongly in the year ending June 2020, pushing export revenue up 10% to $260 million due to increased vegetable seed exports.
  • Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to decrease by 1.9% to $255 million.

 

 

Other primary sector exports

  • Export revenue to increase to $3 billion in the year ending June 2020, up 7.3%, led by products such as dairy blends and soft drinks.
  • Exports of other primary sector products are expected to increase another 2.6% to $3.1 billion in 2021.

 


Find out more

Supplementary data tables used to prepare the reports

SOPI reports from 2012 to today

Who to contact

If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz

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