Situation and outlook for primary industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
The March 2020 SOPI report [PDF, 1.4 MB]
Summary of the March 2020 SOPI report
In 2020, we expect export revenue to increase 0.5% to $46.5 billion. Our expectations have decreased from our December 2019 forecast round, with downward revisions to most sectors, particularly dairy, meat and wool, and forestry. Most of this decrease is due to falling international demand in the wake of the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak. Given the evolving situation in relation to COVID-19, this forecast needs to be treated with more caution than normal. For 2021, we expect an increase of 2.4% in export revenue to $47.6 billion as we expect global demand to have recovered from the effects of COVID-19.
- For the year to June 2020, we expect dairy exports to rise 6.3% to $19.2 billion, driven by strong domestic production and rising prices.
- Exports are expected to decrease 0.5% for 2021 to $19.3 billion.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool export revenue is expected to increase 0.3% to reach $10.2 billion for the year to June 2020. This increase is due to high international meat prices as a result of African swine fever reducing China's pork herd.
- Exports are expected to increase a further 1.6% to $10.4 million in 2021.
- Exports for the year to June 2020 are expected to drop 17.9% to $5.7 billion due to sharply lower log prices in China. This is $0.5 billion lower than the December forecast as expectations that log exports would improve after the Chinese New Year have been overtaken by trade disruptions due to COVID-19.
- Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to recover 6.4% to $6.0 billion.
- Horticulture export revenue is expected to rise 2.9% to $6.3 billion for the year to June 2020, led by increases in kiwifruit, wine, and apples and pears.
- Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to increase a further 5.6% to $6.6 billion.
- Seafood exports for the year to June 2020 are expected to decrease 2.2% to $1.9 billion due to lower catch limits and a significant decrease in rock lobster revenue as most orders were cancelled from late January due to disruption from COVID-19.
- Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to rise 5.2% to $2.0 billion.
- Production and exports are expected to recover strongly in the year ending June 2020, pushing export revenue up 10% to $260 million due to increased vegetable seed exports.
- Exports for the year to June 2021 are expected to decrease 3.8% to $250 million.
Other primary sector exports
- Export revenue to increase to $3.0 billion in the year ending June 2020, up 4.5%, led by products such as dairy blends and soft drinks, innovative foods, and live animals.
- Exports of other primary sector products are expected to increase another 1.7% to $3.0 billion in 2021.
Find out more
Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz