Situation and outlook for primary industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and outlook for primary industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Economic update for the primary industries December 2020
Export revenue is forecast to fall 1.0 percent to $47.5 billion for the year ending June 2021, due to an expected strengthening New Zealand Dollar and a lower outlook for meat and wool, dairy, and seafood caused by COVID-19 challenges. This is forecast to more than offset a recovery in forestry and continued strength in horticulture exports. In 2022, export revenue is forecast to increase 3.6 percent to $49.2 billion.
- Dairy exports are forecast to fall 4.6% to $19.2 billion for the year ending June 2021. Expectations of another strong production season are forecast to be offset by weaker global dairy prices.
- Exports are expected to increase 4.8% to $20.1 billion in 2022.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool exports are forecast to decrease 8.2% to $9.8 billion for the year ending June 2021. This decrease is due to prices receding in early 2020 from the near-record levels in late 2019, mainly due to COVID-19-related uncertainty and food service closures.
- Exports are expected to increase 3% to $10.1 billion in 2022.
- Forestry exports are expected to increase 8.1% to $6 billion for the year ending June 2021 due to strong demand for logs from China and robust demand for sawn timber from the United States.
- Exports are expected to increase a further 2.7% to $6.2 billion in 2022.
- Horticulture exports are forecast to rise 9.1% for the year ending June 2021 to $7.1 billion following successful harvests in early 2020 for most crops. Consumer demand for fresh fruit and wine has remained strong despite COVID-19-related disruptions, and this is expected to continue.
- Exports are expected to increase another 1.6% to $7.2 billion in 2022.
- Seafood exports are forecast to fall 1.4% to $1.8 billion for the year ending June 2021 due to food service closures, challenging freight logistics, and lower consumer spending.
- Exports are expected to increase 10.4% to $2 billion in 2022.
- Arable exports are forecast to increase by 5.3% to $305 million for the year ending 2021, building on the significant growth in 2020 (up 23%). Uncertainty in the ryegrass and clover seed export markets is tempering our growth forecast while the outlook for vegetable seeds remains positive.
- Exports are forecast to increase another 1.6% to $310 million in 2022.
Other primary sector exports
- Processed foods and other products are forecast to reach $3.3 billion for the year ending June 2021, up 9.2% from 2020. The main contributors to this growth are increases in live animals, honey, innovative processed foods, and sugar and confectionery.
- Exports are forecast to increase another 0.9% to $3.3 billion in 2022.
Find out more
Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz