The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report quarterly. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – December 2022
Food and fibre sector exports have performed better than expected in the year to 30 June 2022. Export revenue reached $53.1 billion, despite challenges arising from global uncertainty and supply chain disruptions.
Export revenue for the food and fibre sector is forecast to hit a record $55.0 billion in the year to 30 June 2023, a 4% increase from the previous year. Modest growth is forecast for most sectors. Dairy export revenue is the key driver behind the increase, while and all sectors are benefiting from a depreciation of the New Zealand dollar (NZD) against the United States dollar (USD).
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) December 2022 [PDF, 19 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy export revenue increased 15% to $22 billion in the year to 30 June 2022. This increase was driven by reduced supply from key dairy exporting regions and firm demand from dairy importing nations.
For the year to 30 June 2023, dairy exports are forecast to increase 6% to $23.3 billion. This is due to a weak New Zealand dollar, the previous season's inventories being sold in the current year and reduced supply from key dairy exporting regions.
Meat and wool
Meat and wool export revenue increased 18% to reach $12.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, due to tight supply, demand rebounding, and higher prices.
Meat and wool export revenue for the year to 30 June 2023 is forecast to increase by 1% to $12.4 billion due to higher production, despite weaker demand placing downwards pressure on prices.
Forestry export revenue increased 1% to $6.6 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, driven by record high pulp prices offsetting a drop in demand for logs.
For the year to 30 June 2023, forestry export revenue is expected to remain flat at $6.6 billion, as a weak New Zealand dollar offsets reduced demand.
Horticulture export revenue increased 3% to $6.8 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, driven by larger kiwifruit export volumes and higher export prices for wine.
Export revenue is forecast to increase 5% to $7.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2023.
Seafood export revenue increased 8% to $1.9 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, driven by high export volumes with the return of tourism and growth in food service.
Seafood export revenue is expected to increase 4% to $2 billion for the year to 30 June 2023.
Arable export revenue decreased 3% to $252 million in the year to 30 June 2022, driven by lower export volumes on the back of a difficult harvest from unfavourable weather conditions.
For the year to 30 June 2023, arable export revenue is expected to increase by 5% to $265 million. This is mostly due to higher vegetable seed prices, which reflects rising production costs.
Other primary sector exports
Export revenue from processed food and other products increased 4% to $3.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2022, led by a 15% increase in the category 'other products'.
For the year to 30 June 2023, processed food and other products are expected to increase by 3% to 3.3 billion.
Find out more
SOPI reports from 2012 to today
Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz