Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries
Get the latest update on the export performance of our main primary sectors and our forecasts for the future. Situation and Outlook, or SOPI, reports are published quarterly by the Economic Intelligence Unit.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
Use SOPI to get historical and forecast production and trade data.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – June 2021
The food and fibre sector has performed strongly despite the challenges presented by COVID-19. Export revenue for the year ending June 2021 is forecast to fall 1.1 percent to $47.5 billion. For the year ending June 2022, export revenue is forecast to rebound and reach a record $49.1 billion as demand begins to recover for our main export market products and destination markets.
- Dairy export revenue is forecast to decrease 5.4% to $19.0 billion in the year ending June 2021, due to COVID-19 related disruptions, and an appreciation of the New Zealand dollar (NZD).
- For the year to June 2022, we forecast dairy exports to rise 7.2% to $20.4 billion, thanks to rising prices.
Meat and wool
- Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to fall 2.8% to $10.4 billion in the year ending June 2021 due to lower meat prices.
- Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase 0.4% in the year to June 2022, mostly led by wool, venison, other meat, and animal products for feed prices. Export volumes for all major categories are forecast to decline next year.
- Forestry exports in the year to June 2021 is forecast to increase by 12.8% to $6.3 billion due to stronger harvest volumes and high prices.
- Most of this growth is due to strong demand from China and the US for our logs. This is expected to continue, with export revenue forecast to reach $6.4 billion in the year to June 2022.
- Horticulture exports revenue is set to rise 2.3% to $6.6 billion in the year ending June 2021, due to larger crops and export volumes of kiwifruit and avocados.
- Export revenue is forecast to increase 2% to $6.8 million in 2022 thanks to higher volumes and strong prices. However, seasonal labour supply concerns and logistics constraints will continue into 2022.
- Seafood export revenue is forecast to fall 4.1% to $1.8 billion in the year to June 2021, due to a decrease in wild capture volumes and weaker aquaculture export prices.
- Over the medium to long-term, seafood export revenue is forecast to grow, with rising prices and mostly stable production.
- Arable export revenue is forecast to fall 6.8% to $270 million in the year to June 2021 due to lower harvest volumes.
- Production and exports are expected to recover in the year ending June 2022, pushing export revenue up 3.7% to $280 million.
Processed foods and other products sector exports
- Export revenue to increase to $3.1 billion in the year ending June 2021, up 2.5%, led by products such as live animals and honey.
- Exports of processed foods and other products is expected to decrease 2.6% to $3.0 billion in 2022.
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Who to contact
If you have any questions about the reports, email SOPI@mpi.govt.nz