About SOPI
The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report twice a year. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
You can use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – June 2025
Food and fibre sector export revenue is expected to increase 12% to $59.9 billion for the year to 30 June 2025, supported by tight global beef and milk supplies, solid demand, and a weaker New Zealand dollar against the United States dollar.
Looking ahead to 2025–2026, food and fibre sector export revenue is forecast to reach $61.4 billion, driven by strengthening export revenue in the dairy, meat and wool, horticulture, forestry, and processed food and other products sectors.
Forecasts will be updated in the December 2025 SOPI.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) June 2025 [PDF, 13 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy
Dairy export revenue is projected to rise by 16% to $27 billion in the year ending 30 June 2025, driven by higher global dairy prices. This price increase reflects stronger global demand and tighter supply, particularly due to reduced milk production in China. In contrast, New Zealand’s milk production is expected to grow by 2.2%, supported by favourable weather conditions.
Looking ahead to 2025–26, dairy export revenue is forecast to reach $27.8 billion. The global dairy market is expected to see modestly constrained supply growth and steady demand across key markets, which should help sustain prices. However, the medium- to long-term outlook remains uncertain, with significant downside risks stemming from ongoing trade policy uncertainty.
Meat and wool
Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase 8% to $12.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2025. A lift in key meat export prices is expected due to tighter global beef and lamb production.
Looking ahead to 2025–26, meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase to $12.7 billion due to improving demand and constrained global beef exports supporting prices. Uncertainty is elevated due to geopolitical tensions and shifting trade policies.
Forestry
Forestry export revenue is expected to increase by 9% to $6.3 billion in 2024–25 led by stronger log prices and increased sawn timber export volumes as supply-side disruptions in processed wood products ease.
Looking ahead to 2025–26, forestry export revenue is forecast to increase to 6.4 billion. Weak demand from China for logs due to lower construction activity and uncertainty around global trade policy are headwinds for the sector over this period.
Horticulture
Horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase by 19% in the year to 30 June 2025, reaching $8.5 billion. This growth is primarily driven by the kiwifruit industry, with exports expected to reach $3.9 billion, following a record 2024 crop and forecasts for an even larger crop in 2025.
Looking ahead to the year to 30 June 2026, horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase to $8.6 billion, driven by modest growth across key industries including kiwifruit, wine and apples and pears.
Seafood
Seafood export revenue is forecast to rise 2% to $2.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2025. Aquaculture is forecast to grow 13%, while wild capture is forecast to fall 3% due to lower volumes. Most key species are holding strong prices, except rock lobster, which faces pressure from increased Australian supply into China.
Looking ahead to 2025–26, seafood export revenue is forecast to stay stable at $2.2 billion. Continued strong prices across most species are expected to balance a drop in export volumes in aquaculture due to reduced harvest and decreased wild capture, keeping total export revenue steady.
Arable
Arable export revenue is forecast to drop 1% to $340 million in the year to 30 June 2025, due to weak ryegrass seed demand and a poor clover season that began early in the year.
For 2025–26, revenue is forecast to remain steady at $340 million. The weak clover season will likely affect next year’s exports, and so far, no contracts have been secured with EU or US buyers for ryegrass seed. US tariff policies add to market uncertainty, leading to a cautious industry outlook in the short term. However, if demand for hybrid vegetable seed stays strong, high prices in this segment could lift overall arable exports into positive territory next year.
Other primary sector exports
Export revenue for the processed food and other products sector is expected to decrease 1% to $3.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2025. Notable increases in export revenue are expected for both cereal products and soup and condiments in 2024–25. However, these increases will be more than offset by decreased exports of other products to the US and live poultry to Southeast Asia.
Looking ahead to 2025–26, processed food and other product export revenue is forecast to increase to $3.5 billion, driven by a gradual rise in prices and volumes for most processed food products.
SOPI data
We also publish supplementary data tables for the reports.
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