About SOPI
The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report twice a year. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
You can use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – June 2026
Food and fibre sector export revenue is expected to rise 6% to $64.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, building on the record export revenue achieved in 2024–25. The expected increase has been largely driven by strong dairy and red meat prices, growth in apple and kiwifruit exports, and a favourable NZD/USD exchange rate.
Forecasts will be updated in the December 2026 SOPI.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) June 2026 [PDF, 16 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy
Dairy export revenue is expected to increase 5% to a record $28.6 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven by strong global prices, favourable exchange rates, and record milk production. A favourable global market outlook is expected to support a high farmgate milk payout of $9.85 per kilogram of milksolids.
Looking ahead to 2026–27, export revenue is forecast to ease by 3% as global prices soften slightly and domestic production pulls back from record levels, although prices are expected to remain high by historical standards. While rising input costs are likely to put some pressure on farmer margins, strong profitability in recent years leaves the sector well-positioned to absorb these pressures and maintain its long-term growth trajectory.
Meat and wool
Meat and wool export revenue is expected to rise 14% to $14.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2026. A strong lift in key meat export prices is expected due to tighter global supply, with higher prices across most products offsetting lower export volumes of beef and mutton. At the farm level, sheep and beef farm profit before tax is forecast to surge 96% in 2025–26, as higher farm revenue more than compensates for rising farm expenditure.
Looking to 2026–27, export revenue is forecast to increase 1% to $14.3 billion, driven by strong demand and a continuation of constrained global beef supplies. Higher export volumes and prices for beef are forecast to more than offset softer export prices for lamb.
Forestry
Forestry export revenue is expected to ease by 1% to $6.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven primarily by softer log prices associated with moderating demand in China. The forestry sector faces pressure in the near term due to subdued global demand, high input costs, and supply chain adjustments.
A further decline of 2% is forecast in 2026–27, reflecting the combined effects of ongoing cost pressures linked to the Middle East conflict and reduced harvest and production volumes. Medium-term conditions are more favourable. Demand for sustainable products, investment in processing capability, and market diversification are expected to support gradual recovery and a transition toward higher-value production over the forecast period.
Horticulture
Horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase 7% to $9.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven by record export volumes of kiwifruit and apples as well as elevated prices for kiwifruit. However, production and profitability in the vegetable-growing sector have been under pressure from higher input and freight costs and planned processing plant closures.
Steady production growth for both kiwifruit and apples, combined with strengthening market demand, is expected to support continued revenue increases in 2026–27 and across the forecast period. Preliminary forecasts suggest that an El Niño weather pattern will prevail over the 2026–27 growing season, which is usually advantageous for the production and ripening of fruit crops and wine grapes in New Zealand but can also pose some production risks.
Seafood
Seafood export revenue is expected to dip 3% to $2.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven by lower export prices and volumes following 4 years of growth. Softer demand for some key premium seafood amid increased competition, along with a slight drop in aquaculture production, is putting downward pressure on both prices and volumes.
Export revenue is forecast to recover by 2% in 2026–27, driven by improved aquaculture performance, but to remain below its peak in 2024–25 due to ongoing cost pressures. Productivity gains in aquaculture, new trade opportunities, and gradually improving global conditions are expected to support a steady recovery and position the sector well for longer-term growth.
Arable
Arable export revenue is expected to drop 4% to $325 million in the year to 30 June 2026, driven by lower export volumes for most arable products – particularly vegetable and pasture seeds. Global oversupply has been keeping prices subdued, limiting export competitiveness and domestic price recovery despite solid productivity.
Export revenue is forecast to recover from 2026–27 onwards, increasing by 5% and continuing to rise modestly across the forecast period. Steady global demand for hybrid seed and New Zealand's well-established role in the global arable supply chain are expected to support this gradual recovery.
Other primary sector exports
Total export revenue for processed food and other products is expected to increase 5% to $3.5 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, supported by stronger export volumes and prices across a range of processed food products. Notable increases in export revenue are expected for innovative processed foods, sugar and confectionery products, honey, and cereal products.
In 2026–27, export revenue growth for processed food and other products is forecast to pause as global trade feels the flow-on effects of the Middle East conflict, with export revenue projected to hold steady at $3.5 billion. Slightly lower overall export volumes are forecast to be offset by food price inflation and a favourable NZD/USD exchange rate, providing a degree of resilience through an uncertain period.
SOPI data
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