About SOPI
The Economic Intelligence Unit releases a Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) report twice a year. SOPI reports look at the performance of our main primary sectors and forecast how they'll perform over the next 2 to 5 years.
You can use SOPI to get historical and forecast data on production and trade.
SOPI also analyses the performance of primary industries in New Zealand and looks at emerging issues affecting trade and production.
Update from the latest SOPI – December 2025
Food and fibre sector export revenue is expected to rise 3% to $62 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, following a 13% increase in 2024–25. The increase in 2025–26 is expected to be driven by volume lifts for dairy, forestry, and horticulture products, and rising prices for meat products.
Forecasts will be updated in the June 2026 SOPI.
Situation and Outlook for Primary Industries (SOPI) December 2025 [PDF, 9.4 MB]
What's happening in our sectors
Dairy
Dairy export revenue is forecast to increase 1% to $27.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2026. Growing global supply is outpacing demand growth, putting downward pressure on prices, although a weaker New Zealand dollar is expected to support exporters to maintain good returns.
Strong domestic milk production, supported by supplementary feed, is expected to increase export volumes. Weaker dairy commodity prices than last season are forecast to result in a decrease from last season’s record farmgate milk price to $9.70 per kilogram of milksolids (kgMS). Although lower, the milk price remains strong and well above the expected break-even milk price, supporting farmer confidence.
Meat and wool
Meat and wool export revenue is forecast to increase 7% to $13.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, following 9% growth in 2024–25. Growth in 2025–26 is due to rising prices more than offsetting declines in export volumes.
Higher prices are being driven by tighter global beef and sheep meat supplies, as well as robust demand from Europe and the US. Higher prices are also more than offsetting lower export volumes of beef, sheep meat, venison, wool, other meat, and animal co-products. Sheep and beef farm profit is expected to increase in 2025–26 due to higher schedule prices more than offsetting a slight rise in expenditure.
Forestry
New Zealand forestry export revenue is forecast to rise 2% to $6.3 billion in the year to 30 June 2026. Revenue growth is forecast to continue, but at a slower pace than in 2024–25 due to subdued construction activity overseas and ongoing trade uncertainty.
Mill closures driven by high operating costs remain a concern, while some industry consolidation continues. Uncertainty remains due to the instability of global economic recovery, potential trade barriers, and continued high input costs.
Horticulture
Horticulture export revenue is forecast to increase 5% to $9.2 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, with continued strong yields for many crops.
Kiwifruit export revenue is forecast to rise, with another good season increasing yields and continued strong prices. Apples had favourable growing conditions for the 2025 crop, delivering an early harvest with good fruit size and quality. Wine export revenue is forecast to bounce back, with a large harvest offsetting continued weaker prices globally and a larger share of bulk wine. Avocado harvest volumes are forecast to be slightly down. However, a large cherry harvest is expected to lift cherry export revenue, while vegetable export revenue is projected to rise modestly.
Seafood
Seafood export revenue is forecast to fall 3% to $2.1 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven by lower export volumes and softer rock lobster prices. Lower export volumes reflect lower aquaculture production due to lower spat availability and high temperatures impacting salmon harvest.
A rebound in aquaculture production in 2026–27 is expected to lift export revenue by increasing export volumes. Global demand remains strong, and New Zealand’s diverse seafood portfolio and broad market access help offset shifts in trade and consumer spending.
Arable
Arable export revenue is forecast to rebound by 2% to $345 million in the year to 30 June 2026, recovering from weather-related setbacks to clover seed harvests and reduced ryegrass exports in 2024–25.
Vegetable seed continues to lead export growth, supported by New Zealand’s reputation for purity and quality assurance. Ryegrass seed exports remain subdued due to global oversupply and pricing pressure.
Other primary sector exports
Total export revenue from processed food and other products is expected to increase 2% to $3.4 billion in the year to 30 June 2026, driven largely by increased export revenue from chocolate and cereal products as well as a slight rebound in revenue from live poultry exports.
Marginal export revenue growth is also forecast for innovative processed foods, honey, and soup and condiments. On the other hand, a further decrease in export revenue from other products is expected due to declining exports of soft drinks to Australia.
SOPI data
We also publish supplementary data tables for the reports.
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