Download AEBR 216 – Population dynamic modelling of the Māui dolphin based on genotype capture-recapture with projections involving bycatch and disease risk

New Zealand Aquatic Environment and Biodiversity Report No. 216.

An individual-based population model was fitted to genetic capture-recapture data collected during 2001-16 from Māui dolphins (Cephalorhyncus hectori maui), to estimate population size and trends. The population is estimated to be declining despite declining mortality rates. Forward projections under various scenarios imply that a further reduction of anthropogenic mortality of at least 50% is required to arrest population decline and avert extinction, regardless of the main source of the mortality, which is suspected to be fisheries bycatch and/or disease.