Download Biosecurity Intelligence report: the threat of Fall Armyworm natural dispersal from Australia to New Zealand

Mathematical modelling of wind trajectories and biological data was used to assess the likelihood of fall armyworm arriving in New Zealand from Australia via wind-assisted natural flight.

It is likely that fall armyworm will arrive via this route in the next five years. Arrival in May or in September–November is more likely than other times of year. Arrival is more likely in the South Island than the North Island; however, arrival in Northland is also possible, especially in late winter–spring.

This supplementary assessment of a single arrival pathway should be read in conjunction with the full Pest Risk Assessment for fall armyworm.