This project examined how farms may be affected by multiple climate-related shock events occurring more frequently and in succession. Using a conceptual irrigated dairy farm in North Canterbury as a case study, researchers modelled a range of climate and production shock scenarios over a 10-year period to better understand the cumulative exposure risk.
The project developed an efficient modelling approach capable of simulating large numbers of climate, water availability, and farm production scenarios within a practical timeframe. This enabled researchers to assess the effectiveness of a range of adaptation and risk-management options, including changes to water storage, water allocation, and stocking rates, in reducing vulnerability and improving farm resilience.
The findings provide valuable insights into how farmers, regional councils, and the financial sector can better prepare for and manage the impacts of increasing climate variability and extreme events. Practical research briefs were developed for regional councils and financial institutions to support climate-risk assessment and decision-making.
The project has also delivered two open-source modelling tools that are available for researchers and practitioners:
https://github.com/Komanawa/komanawa-simple-farm-model
https://github.com/Komanawa/komanawa-basgra-nz-py
Research outputs from the project are being published in a series of scientific papers. The first paper is: https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-025-03946-z
Climate Shock Resilience and Adaptation - Research Briefs for Rural Finance and Regional Council Sectors
Type
Technical paper
Published
Last updated